Is COVID-19 getting better yet?

Data sourced from the European Centre for Disease Control. Last updated Thursday 1 October.

Current status by country

Country ⇵ Cases ⇵ Deaths ⇵ Is it getting better? ⇵
Afghanistan down down yes
Albania down down yes
Algeria down down yes
Andorra up down maybe
Angola up up uh oh
Anguilla down down tbc
Antigua and Barbuda down down tbc
Argentina down up maybe
Armenia up down yes
Aruba down down yes
Australia down down yes
Austria down up maybe
Azerbaijan down up maybe
Bahamas down up maybe
Bahrain down up maybe
Bangladesh down down yes
Barbados down down tbc
Belarus up up maybe
Belgium down up no
Belize up up no
Benin down up tbc
Bermuda down down tbc
Bhutan up down tbc
Bolivia down down yes
Bonaire, Saint Eustatius and Saba down down tbc
Bosnia and Herzegovina down down yes
Botswana up down yes
Brazil down down yes
British Virgin Islands down down tbc
Brunei Darussalam down down tbc
Bulgaria up up no
Burkina Faso down up no
Burundi up down tbc
Cambodia down down tbc
Cameroon down down yes
Canada up up uh oh
Cape Verde up up no
Cayman Islands down down tbc
Central African Republic up up tbc
Chad down up tbc
Chile up up maybe
China down down yes
Colombia down down yes
Comoros down down tbc
Congo up down maybe
Costa Rica down down yes
Cote dIvoire down up no
Croatia down down yes
Cuba down down yes
Curaçao down down yes
Cyprus up down maybe
Czechia down up maybe
Democratic Republic of the Congo down down uh oh
Denmark down down yes
Djibouti up down tbc
Dominica up down tbc
Dominican Republic down down yes
Ecuador down down yes
Egypt down down yes
El Salvador up up no
Equatorial Guinea down down tbc
Eritrea down down tbc
Estonia up down maybe
Eswatini down down yes
Ethiopia down down yes
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) down down tbc
Faroe Islands down down tbc
Fiji up down tbc
Finland up down yes
France down up maybe
French Polynesia up up maybe
Gabon up down tbc
Gambia down down tbc
Georgia up up uh oh
Germany up up maybe
Ghana up down maybe
Gibraltar up down tbc
Greece down down yes
Greenland down down tbc
Grenada down down tbc
Guam down up maybe
Guatemala up down yes
Guernsey down down tbc
Guinea down down yes
Guinea Bissau down up tbc
Guyana down up maybe
Haiti up down yes
Holy See up down tbc
Honduras up down maybe
Hungary down up no
Iceland down down yes
India down down yes
Indonesia up down yes
Iran up up maybe
Iraq up down yes
Ireland up up maybe
Isle of Man down down tbc
Israel up up maybe
Italy up up maybe
Jamaica down up no
Japan down down yes
Jersey up down tbc
Jordan up up uh oh
Kazakhstan down up no
Kenya up up maybe
Kosovo down down yes
Kuwait down up no
Kyrgyzstan up up no
Laos up down tbc
Latvia up up uh oh
Lebanon up down yes
Lesotho down up maybe
Liberia up up tbc
Libya down up no
Liechtenstein down down tbc
Lithuania up up maybe
Luxembourg down up no
Madagascar down down yes
Malawi down down tbc
Malaysia up down yes
Maldives down down yes
Mali down down yes
Malta down down yes
Mauritania down down yes
Mauritius up down tbc
Mexico up down yes
Moldova up down yes
Monaco down down tbc
Mongolia down down tbc
Montenegro down down yes
Montserrat up down tbc
Morocco up up no
Mozambique up up maybe
Myanmar up up no
Namibia down down yes
Nepal up down maybe
Netherlands up up maybe
New Caledonia down down tbc
New Zealand down down tbc
Nicaragua down down tbc
Niger down down tbc
Nigeria up down uh oh
North Macedonia down down yes
Northern Mariana Islands down down tbc
Norway up up maybe
Oman down up maybe
Pakistan up up maybe
Palestine down up no
Panama down down yes
Papua New Guinea down down tbc
Paraguay down down yes
Peru down down yes
Philippines down down yes
Poland up up maybe
Portugal up down no
Puerto Rico up down maybe
Qatar down down yes
Romania up up maybe
Russia up up maybe
Rwanda down down yes
Saint Kitts and Nevis down down tbc
Saint Lucia down down tbc
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines up down tbc
San Marino down up tbc
Sao Tome and Principe down down tbc
Saudi Arabia down down yes
Senegal down up uh oh
Serbia down down yes
Seychelles down down tbc
Sierra Leone down up tbc
Singapore down up no
Sint Maarten down down tbc
Slovakia up up no
Slovenia up up maybe
Somalia up up maybe
South Africa down up no
South Korea down up no
South Sudan down down tbc
Spain down down yes
Sri Lanka down down tbc
Sudan down down tbc
Suriname down down yes
Sweden down down yes
Switzerland down down yes
Syria up up maybe
Taiwan up down tbc
Tajikistan down up maybe
Thailand up down maybe
Timor Leste up down tbc
Togo down up maybe
Trinidad and Tobago down down yes
Tunisia up up no
Turkey down up maybe
Turks and Caicos islands down up tbc
Uganda down down yes
Ukraine up up maybe
United Arab Emirates up up no
United Kingdom up up no
United Republic of Tanzania up up tbc
United States of America down down yes
United States Virgin Islands down up tbc
Uruguay up up uh oh
Uzbekistan down down yes
Venezuela down down yes
Vietnam up down tbc
Western Sahara down down tbc
Yemen down down tbc
Zambia down down yes
Zimbabwe down down yes


  1. yes The rate of deaths/day is falling and cases are decelerating.
  2. maybe There are signs of a fall in deaths/day.
  3. no The rate of deaths/day is rising.
  4. uh oh There is an acceleration in daily deaths and cases.
  5. tbc Not enough data (<50 cases total).

Global Status yes

The number of daily cases and the number of daily deaths is decreasing.

Figure WORLD-1. The daily change in the rate of new cases of Coronavirus. Negative values indicate the number of cases per day is decreasing. When the line crosses zero, the number of cases has plateaued. The number of daily cases is falling.

Figure WORLD-2. The daily change in the rate of deaths from Coronavirus. Negative values indicate the number of deaths per day is decreasing. When the line crosses zero, the number of deaths has plateaued. The number of daily deaths is falling.

Data is sourced from the European Centre for Disease Control daily report data on the geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide . Updated daily at 12:00 UTC.

Daily cases and deaths for each country are smoothed using a 7-day window function. Change in the daily rate is calculated using a 7-day rolling difference. Values above zero indicate the daily number of cases or deaths is increasing, while those below zero indicate that the number of cases or deaths is decreasing. Status for each country determined from a combination of case and death data. See the source code for details.

Data analysis & design ©2020 Martin Fitzpatrick PhD